The fate of Jonathan Lucroy has been up in the air since the Brewers went into rebuild mode at the trade deadline last June. They have traded away Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez, Adam Lind, Khris Davis, Jean Segura, Gerardo Parra, Mike Fiers, Jonathan Broxton, and Francisco Rodriguez since last July. The only remaining starting position players are Lucroy, Scooter Gennett, and Ryan Braun. Braun has a long-term contract that makes him hard to trade and Gennett is a young player that does not project to get much in return in a trade. So what should the Brewers do with Lucroy, their only remaining trade chip? Let’s take a look at the options.
Trade Him
Lucroy is an elite catcher, both offensively and defensively. He is a career .289 hitter who holds the record for doubles in a season by a catcher with 53 in 2014. He started the All-Star Game and finished fourth in the MVP voting that season.
On defense, he is widely known for his ability to frame pitches and steal some strikes. Lucroy’s weak spot has been throwing out base runners. His caught stealing percentage was in the low 20s, but he has been working on it for the last couple of seasons. He threw out 28% of potential base stealers in 2015.
With his elite status, Lucroy could command a king’s ransom in return if he were to be traded. The Brewers have not been shy about stocking up on solid young players. Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton, who were both brought over in recent trades, made their first Opening Day starts for the Brewers. They also have gone from having one of the bottom 10 to having one of the top 10 farm systems because of recent trades. Trading Lucroy will only add to that.
If they do trade Lucroy, they have Martin Maldonado to take over behind the plate. Maldonado is just as good behind the plate as Lucroy, even throwing out 34% of would-be base stealers in his career. Maldonado’s bat is the weak spot. He is a career .221 hitter without a lot of pop. If Maldonado can improve his hitting, the Brewers do have him under control until after the 2018 season.
Keep Him
Lucroy is coming off an injury-plagued season that caused his numbers to be down across the board. That could cause his value to lower. If the Brewers do not get at least two top-notch prospects in return, they should not trade him. At this point, there is no team that is willing to give up what the Brewers are asking for, and they should not lower their asking price.
The Brewers are in full rebuild mode. One of the pieces that they could build around is an elite catcher. Lucroy is under contract through the end of 2016 with a team option for 2017. If the Brewers can negotiate an extension, Lucroy could be the anchor of a young, talented team that will compete for several years.
It would be very difficult to replace an elite catcher. If the Brewers want to compete for a playoff spot, it will be important to be solid up the middle. That starts with the catching position. Lucroy would provide stability as well as veteran leadership while playing one of the key positions.
The Brewers have stocked their farm system, so there is no glaring need to add to it. They have some solid pitching coming up, as well as a top shortstop and a couple of outfielders. If they can have a successful draft in June, they will be set for a few years.
Now We Wait
Lucroy was surprised that he was still a Brewer heading into Spring Training. Now that he was with the team on Opening Day, it is pretty certain that he will be in Milwaukee for at least the first half of the season. If the Brewers are out of it around the trade deadline, and it is very likely with the division that the Brewers play in, there may be a team that is willing to sell the farm to get Lucroy. The Brewers need to hold firm and get their asking price.
If Lucroy returns to his 2014 form, there will be a few teams that would be willing to pay the price to get him, especially if a contender loses their catcher to injury. If Lucroy does not perform well this season, it is still possible that a team would be willing to make a deal if they have a deficiency at catcher.
The bottom line is that Lucroy is still with the Brewers for now. If he does get traded, the Brewers should get a stable of prospects in return. The Brewers stand to win either way. If they keep Lucroy, they have an elite catcher to build around. If they trade him, they will have several more prospects with which to build.
So What Should They Do?
The Brewers should hold out for their asking price. There is no need to settle for less than that. If they cannot negotiate an extension, then they may be forced to make a trade during the 2017 season. Until then, having Lucroy in a Brewer uniform will be good for the team.
