Sweet 16 Preview: South Regional
The South Region looks a lot different than it did on Selection Sunday. #14 seed UAB upset #3 Iowa State, and #11 UCLA upset #6 SMU on a controversial goaltending call before going on to beat UAB to move to the Sweet 16. The top half of the bracket went as expected with #1 Duke and #5 Utah navigating their way to their matchup in Houston, while #2 Gonzaga beating North Dakota State and Iowa to set up the contest with UCLA.
Come Friday evening in Houston at the NRG Stadium, we will see the following matchups to determine who advances to the Elite Eight game on Sunday:
#2 Gonzaga vs. #11 UCLA
#1 Duke vs #5 Utah
In the first game Friday night, Gonzaga has a rematch of an earlier-season contest against UCLA. The Zags and the Bruins played early in December, with Gonzaga winning 87-74 at the Pauley Pavilion. The loss started a 5-game losing streak for the Bruins, leading most of the college basketball world to write UCLA off. Kyle Wiltjer had 24 points on 9/13 shooting and Byron Wesley finished with 20 points while the Zags shot 58.5%. UCLA has to do better defending in this game, or it will be a repeat of December.
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Gonzaga is number one in the nation in field goal percentage (52.6%), and average 1.21 points per possession. On the defensive side of the ball, they are holding teams to 39.3% (good for 19th in the nation), and rank 40th on the defensive glass, and 80th in rebound efficency. A question remains as to whether their offensive numbers are so staggering because of their schedule and is a statement about the relative strength of the WCC as a whole or is their offense lethal regardless of the competition they face?
If UCLA’s shooters on the wings get shut down and the Bruins are outrebounded, things that SMU and UAB were unable to do, Gonzaga will win. Wiltjer will get his points, and Wesley, Bell, Kevin Pangos and Domantas Sabonis should all get theirs. It will be interesting to see both team’s centers going at it down low.
The Tony Parker of the UAB game will have to show up for UCLA to pull off the upset win. He is going to have to score points inside and fight Wiltjer, Sabonis, and Przemek Karnowski on the glass. It is imperative for Parker to stay out of foul trouble as well, as UCLA does not have the inside depth that Gonzaga does.
They are also going to have to keep Bell and Pangos in check from the perimeter. Norman Powell might help on that, and on the offensive end, his ability to slash and draw fouls on the bigs or any of the Gonzaga guards could lead to UCLA finding themselves in the game late.
That is a lot of ifs for UCLA, but Steve Alford’s crew have been proving people wrong all tournament. Can Gonzaga get back to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1999 or will Bryce Alford gets hot from three again?
In the second game of the night, the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils take on the 5th seed Utah Utes. With these two teams, you can be sure one Coach K is going to be happy after Friday night’s contest, but as to which one it will be, we just have to wait to find that out.
Duke has came into the Sweet 16 on a tear. They have led by double-digits for 61 of their 80 minutes so far in this entire tournament. They jumped on Robert Morris and San Diego State early, then withstood their own scoring drought and small runs by both teams to win comfortably by 29 and 19 points respectively.
Freshman phenom Jahil Okafor has been outstanding in the NCAA Tournament. He is averaging 23.5 points on 21/27 shooting from the field (77.8%), becoming the first freshman for Duke to average 20 or more points in their first two tournament games. He is also trying to become the first Duke player since Dahntay Jones (2003) to score 20 or more points in his first three tournament games.
Quinn Cook, the Blue Devils lone senior rotational player has a streak of at least one three-point basket in 45 straight games. That streak is tied for fourth amongst ACC players in history, and he has been shooting 41.1% from beyond the arc (122/297) during that stretch.
Duke is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2013, where they lost in the Elite Eight to eventual national champion Louisville. All the ghosts of Mercer and Lehigh in the two season sandwiched around that season seem to have been exorcised. Head coach Mike Krzyzewski has repeatedly said that he is “living in the moment” with this team, and the past successes and failures do not define this particular team. He also has stated that this team is not “mentally or physically tired”, and is getting better.
The timing is just about perfect for the Blue Devils, and their much-maligned defense has gotten better during the NCAA Tournament, with shades of it seen during the ACC Tournament Quarter-Final win vs NC State. They have a lethal offense, but that defensive has let them down in losses vs Miami, NC State, and Notre Dame twice. If they continue improving, the Utes and the Gonzaga/UCLA winner need to be worried.
Utah comes into this game having beaten both Stephen F Austin and Georgetown. They had lost four of seven coming into the tournament, but have rebounded nicely in winning two straight. Delon Wright is considered the key to the Utes. He hasn’t been scoring as much during the tournament, but his poise in finding open teammates and his work on the defensive end have steadied the Utes when they have been on long scoring droughts.
The Utes have to mindful of the defensive and offensive glass. They have been outrebounded in both their tournament games thus far, and are not really a great rebounding team on the season (ranked in the 300’s). If they let Okafor, Marshall Plumlee, Justise Winslow, and the Duke wings get second-chance opportunities or run-outs on missed shots, it will be a long night for Utah.
Another key to watch for is how 7-foot Jakob Poeltl matches up with Okafor. Will he be able to drag Okafor out on ball screens and try to hit on pick and rolls with Wright, or will Duke continue to ice the ball screen, and make Poeltl’s screens for Wright or other teammates a non-factor? Poeltl has averaged 9.1 points and 6.7 rebounds this year, but he will need to outdo that on Friday. If he gets to the foul line, he is a liabilty, shooting just 43% from the foul line. That could factor in if the game is tight late into the second half.
Besides the usual keys of winning the rebounding the battle and limiting the damage that their opponent’s best player(s) are capable of, here are the other factors for each team to emphasize on Friday night:
Duke: hit outside shots, force turnovers, get quick run-outs off defensive rebounds.
Utah: Limit or slow down Okafor and Winslow, defend penetration by Duke guards, get Wright easy shots, and keep Poeltl out of foul trouble.
Whichever team is able to accomplish those goals will be the most likely team to advance to the Sunday game against the Gonzaga/UCLA winner to determine the South Region representative in Indianapolis for the Final Four.
