At any point in the Major League Baseball season, fans and analysts can debate about the most-surprising teams. “Which team has won far more games than expected at that point?” In addition, we can also discuss which team has lost far more games than expected. We may have our differences in opinions, but that is what makes debating sports fun. I have chosen my most-surprising winning and losing teams as of May 7, roughly 35 games into the season. Both teams play their home games in the state of Florida.
Most-surprising winners — Miami Marlins
This was a tough choice between the Miami Marlins and the Milwaukee Brewers. Whereas the Brewers have a better record (22-13) than the Marlins (19-15), the Marlins are coming off a 100-loss season in 2013 with nearly the same roster. They have tremendous young pitching talent in Jose Fernandez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Henderson Alvarez. In fact, the Marlins have a very good 3.30 ERA, good for seventh-best in the National League and eighth in the Majors.
The surprise comes on the offense. Remember that the Marlins finished 2013 dead last in the Major Leagues in runs scored with 513, an average of 3.16 runs per game. So far this year, they have scored 4.62 runs per game. They rank second in the National League and seventh in the Majors with 157 runs so far. Individually, Giancarlo Stanton is his usual stud-like self: .295, 10 HR, 38 RBI. Casey McGehee and Marcell Ozuna have each driven in over 20 runs.
Can the Marlins keep this up for the entire season? If so, then they will give the Atlanta Braves a serious run for the A.L. East title.
Most-surprising losers — Tampa Bay Rays
Just a few hours up Interstate 75, the Tampa Bay Rays are the most surprising losing team as of May 7. The Rays won 92 games and an American League Wild Card berth last year. So far this year, they are 15-19 and in last place in the A.L. East.
To find the biggest reason, just check the Rays’ Injury report. Matt Moore is out for the season because of Tommy John surgery. He last pitched on April 7 and had a 2.70 ERA in two winless starts. Losing him will hurt this team all season. In addition, Alex Cobb (1-1, 1.89 ERA) and Jeremy Hellickson (no innings pitched) are unable to help because of injuries. Cobb has a strained oblique and last pitched on April 12. He is due back in late May. Hellickson is recovering from elbow surgery last year and is due back in June. Both will help lower that team ERA, which currently stands at 4.33, 10th in the American League.
Offensively, the Rays are okay: 4.24 runs per game, seventh in the American League. No one has really stepped up as the superstar, but the entire lineup does the job. The home runs and RBI’s are evenly distributed, making the lineup tough for pitchers to work with. Getting Cobb and Hellickson back on the mound will make the offense stand out more and help the Rays get back into the race. The question is , though, whether or not the Rays will stay close enough until then.
We can still say. “It’s early” for just a short time more. We will very soon reach the quarter point in the season. The Marlins, Rays, and all other teams will then have to show whether they are contenders or pretenders.
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