Josh’s Top 5 heading into Duke-NC State
On January 11, the undefeated Duke Blue Devils traveled to PNC Arena to face NC State, where they had previously lost the last three out of four. In fact, senior Quinn Cook entered the game having NEVER won in that building. Duke also lost in the opening round of the NCAA tournament last year to an experienced Mercer team in the same building. Duke went into the game undefeated but not having played exceptional basketball, and ended up getting torched.
The Blue Devils could not stop NC State’s guards, and Ralston Turner finished the game with 16 points, while Trevor Lacey had 21 points. Beejay Anya finished with a career-high 14 points as well. NC State could not miss as they hit 10 out of 16 three pointers for 63%, and shot 55% overall for the game. NC State got away with anything they wanted in that game, and Duke had serious question marks after their first loss of the season.
Now, two months later, they will square off in the third round of the ACC tournament. NC State handled Pittsburgh yesterday in an 81-70 victory. Both teams are completely different than they were a couple of months ago. Anthony “Cat” Barber is currently playing his best basketball, and had a career high 34 points in the win last night.
Meanwhile, Duke is playing their best basketball of the entire season and riding an 11-game win streak. So, what do we need to look for in today’s rematch? Here are 5 question marks entering today’s game:
1. Can Duke defend NC State’s perimeter?
In their last meeting, the perimeter destroyed Duke’s tight man-to-man defense. Duke could not keep the NC state players in front of them. The guards for NC State got into the lane at will, opening up easy layup opportunities for their bigs or freeing up wide-open three-point jump shots for Lacey and Turner. I am interested to see Duke’s game plan to slow down the NC State guards. Duke has played it’s best defense for much of their final stretch of the regular season. Will Duke go zone in order to stop NC State’s guards from getting into the lane? That may leave open Turner and Lacey to light it up from deep. If Duke wants to prevail and move on in the tournament, they will have to find a way to slow down the guards of NC State.
2. Will NC State continue their dominant play?
NC State has played in my opinion, their best basketball of the entire season in their last three games. They finished the regular season by beating Clemson and Syracuse, then began play in the ACC tournament by beating Pittsburgh handily. NC State handled Pitt and Syracuse for much of the game, and never looked back. Usually, you can expect a second half le down by NC State in which they throw the game away after having the lead. That has not happened in their previous three games. However, they have showed major signs of inconsistency this season. For example, NC State has beaten Duke at home and beaten UNC and Louisville on the road. Those are some of the best wins by anyone in the conference not named Duke or UVA. If you look at their losses, though, they have lost to Wake Forest, Wofford, and needed a buzzer beater to beat a bad Georgia Tech team. IThat is inconsistency at its best. So, is NC State prepared to stay inconsistent or could we see a major team letdown today against Duke?
3. Will Amile Jefferson start?
Duke has gone small in their last several games by inserting Matt Jones into the lineup over Amile Jefferson. That puts the 6′ 6″ Justise Winslow at the pf position. This has worked tremendously for Duke in that there are not many power forwards on opposing teams who can defend Winslow on the perimeter. When Duke played UNC who is huge and deep down low, that forced coach Krzyzewski to insert Jefferson more frequently and give him more minutes. NC State’s bigs have played fairly well as of late and played exceptionally well in their last meeting against Duke. Will Duke match their size or will Duke hope to cause major mismatches today?
4. How will Duke handle the pressure entering tournament season?
This is the biggest question mark surrounding this young Duke team. The world watched Duke’s freshman get their backs pushed against the wall following three quick losses back in January. That seems like decades ago now, after those freshman went on a tear. Duke has now beaten Virginia on the road, UNC and Syracuse twice, and torched Notre Dame at home since their last loss. They are playing incredible basketball, and the freshman have been CLUTCH. In fact, Grayson Allen has had an increased role since the dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon, and has excelled. Will the freshman continue their dominant play? Duke has been dominant in the ACC Tournament, winning 10 of the previous 16 editions, and this has been Duke’s tournament to lose over the past few years. However, they have struggled in the previous three years. Cook enters this tournament never having won, and has no March hardware to show for his career. He is hungry, but the mountain of not having won the ACC tournament and getting out of the first weekend (Quinn Cook has lost in the first round of the big dance 2 out of his 3 seasons at Duke) has to play a mental note on him as a leader and is also in the minds of this young Duke team. Will Duke handle the pressure and take care of business today and keep moving on, or will the pressure get to them, and the freshman finally play like many freshman do, and choke? Experience means a lot come tournament time, and Duke has lost way too often as of late in the first weekend of tournaments. There is no question Duke is playing the best basketball of any team in the ACC and any team outside of Kentucky, but with their recent struggle, it will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure.
5. Will the crowd be anti-Duke?
In recent years, the crowd at the ACC Tournament has begun to play an interesting role. I happened to be at the ACC tournament championship game a season ago where Duke played Virginia, and the crowd was 60-70% pro-UVA. We know everyone loves seeing Duke lose, and I am interested to see if Duke fans show up and show out at the ACC tournament (something they have not done as of late) or do they stay home and watch the game? You better believe that the fanbases for the other tournament contenders will be pulling hard against Duke. Will this play a major factor?
My prediction: I think NC State’s consistency falls, and Duke wins fairly easily 81-69.
(Feature image: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports)
