Now that have the Finals are set, it’s time to take an in-depth look at what will decide the 2015 Stanley Cup Finals.
The high powered offense of the Chicago Blackhawks, versus the dominant goaltending of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Chicago is looking for their third Cup in six years, while the lightning look for their first since 2004. If this series is like the others with the Blackhawks, expect late night overtime hockey.
Offense
Here’s a couple fun facts to kick off the offensive match-up we’re going to see.
Chicago is 32-0-0 in the regular season and playoffs when leading after two periods. While the Lightning are 9-0 in the postseason when scoring first, and each of Bishop’s three shutouts has been a 2-0 win.
Hands down the Chicago Blackhawks have the best top two lines in hockey, but the Lightning give them some competition with their ‘triplets’ line.
Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov have combined for 28 goals (the Lightning have 55) and 55 points. Johnson is first in playoff goals (12) and points (21). Kucherov is fourth in points with 19, including nine goals. Palat has 15 points, including seven goals.
Not to be left off the list is Steven Stamkos has found his groove, and has 7 goals + 10 assists this postseason.
But don’t let these numbers fool you, the Blackhawks just as potent as an offense.
Patrick Kane leads the way with 20 points (10G, 10A), Jonathan Toews has 18 points (9G, 9A), and Duncan Keith has 18 points (2G, 16A). You can expect Keith to play a lot of minutes this series to anchor down the defense.
Defense
After looking at the Blackhawks top four of Keith, Hjalmarsson, Seabrook and Oduya, it’s easy to just give them the defensive edge. Just hold on for one second though to give Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman a chance to defend the Lightning.
Hedman is a towering 24 year old who can lead an offensive rush and be first back on defense. Stralman is an execellent counterpart to this duo, who are limiting teams to one-and-done chances, when Stralman and Hedman are on the ice. They are the great equalizer to the Blackhawks’ speed and skill.
One line though will help counter the tandem of Keith-Seabrook, but when you go down further, the Blackhawks just have the advantage. Hjalmarsson blocks just about any shot he can get a limb in front of, while Oduya covers the back end.
It will be fun to watch the top defensive pairs set the expected tone, but at the end of the day they can’t play 60 minutes, so the edge goes to the Blackhawks and their depth.
Special Teams
When it comes to special teams, statistically these teams are just about even. The Lightning hold the slight edge in power-play goals (22.2% to 19.6%) and penalty kills (81.25% to 75.5%). This category will probably be where the series winner comes from. Those numbers should stay pretty neutral the entire series thanks to Crawford and Bishop.
This is a spot that could decide the series. If those numbers do lean more to one side expect them to be the winner. The Blackhawks have way to much offense, and need to play like they did in Game 7 against Anaheim to roll through Tampa Bay.
Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Hossa have seven power-play goals combined this postseason. If Sharp can get one or two, it may ignite his play from the mediocre level it’s been at this postseason.
Johnson, Palat, Kucherov, and Stamkos have the edge with 11 power-play goals between them.
In the end this series, like every other Stanley Cup Final, should come down to the goaltending.
Goaltending
I want to give this to Corey Crawford just because of the grief/money Ben Bishop cost me in Game 7, but that wouldn’t be fun. So we’ll brake this matchup down.
A lot of people are writing Crawford off of his possible second Stanley Cup title. It’s easy to do, especially when you look at the postseason Bishop has had. Bishop is 12-8 with a .920 save percentage, 2.15 goals-against average and three shutouts in the playoffs. When he comes off a loss he’s even better, going 7-1 with a 1.25 GAA, .951 save percentage and two shutouts.
After seeing numbers like that most would jump on the Bishop bandwagon and ride him for the playoffs. I know Bishop gave up 5+ goals in three games against the Rangers and was able to steal the series in Game 7.
I just don’t see how Bishop will be able to handle the explosive Blackhawks offense.
Bishop will give the Blackhawks trouble no doubt, but just like against the Ducks and Frederik Andersen, the Blackhawks top lines will figure him out. The Blackhawks offense held Vezina Trophy finalists Pekka Rinne to a .901 save percentage and Devan Dubnyk to .929 save percentage in their series. Look for the same trend in the Finals.
Can’t push on the goalies category, Edge to Crawford and the Blackhawks.
Mayoral Bets
Not to be out shadowed, Chicago’s Rahm Emmanuel and Tampa’s Bob Buckhorn, have placed their friendly wager for the loser to pay up for the series.
Since it’s the 122 year anniversary of the Stanley Cup, the number 122 is in both wagers.
Emmanuel is offering 122 slices of Eli’s cheesecake, a case of craft beer from Slap Shot Brewing, a mustard fried catfish and peach cobbler from BJ’s Market, and Giordano’s best deep-dish.
While Buckhorn is wagering a case of Cigar City Invasion Pale Ale as well as 122 mini Cuban sandwiches and the Original “1905” Salad from Columbia Restaurant, a 110-year-old restaurant in the Ybor City section of Tampa.
In this case I hope the Blackhawks win just for the 122 mini Cuban sandwiches alone. If you know me I’m a big sandwich guy so that takes the cake. Can’t go wrong with craft beer, so either in this bet would be nice.
Series Prediction
Blackhawks in 6. Too fast, too strong, too good. It’s been a while since we’ve had a hockey dynasty and with the cap crunch coming this offseason in Chicago, it may be the last for this one.
There you have it. Game 1 takes place tonight (June 3 at 8 p.m. EST on NBC).
