Five months ago, when everyone was gearing up for the kick-off to the college season, there were not many individuals who would have seen the Oregon Ducks and the Ohio State Buckeyes playing in the College Football National Championship game. Yet, here we are: Monday, January 12th. Game day has arrived, and the Ducks and the Buckeyes are about to face off for the trophy.
Following the semifinal games, Oregon was the team that was going to be my pick for the National Championship game. They destroyed Florida State, and while Ohio State played strong and were definitely the better team in beating #1 Alabama and deserved their spot in the “big game,” there just seemed to be no way that they could compete with the firepower of Oregon.
However, a lot can transpire in the 11 days leading up to the game that can change the mind of a sports fan.
Benched Receivers
Devon Allen and Darren Carrington are both not going to be playing for the Ducks. Combined, they had over 70 receptions, 1200 yards, and 9 touchdowns. Yes, Marcus Mariota will still have plenty of wide receivers to throw to, including his top receiver Byron Marshall, but he will miss seeing Allen and Carrington on their routes and this could play a huge role in the game.
With the front seven focusing on shutting down the the run game, Ohio State’s defensive backs will have to make sure that Mariota does not beat them deep. They should be playing it safe most of the game to keep the receivers in front of them. Marshall will be their first concern, and they will also keep their eye on Evan Bayliss, who caught 6 passes in the Rose Bowl against Florida State. However, Tyvis Powell, Vonn Bell and Duran Grave have each stepped up their game over the last six games to come up with key interceptions.
Cardale Jones
He played well and survived against Alabama. The Oregon defense will be a defense that will be easier to read and beat. He may only have two starts under his belt, but they have both been big games, and even though he was the third-string QB to begin the season, he has grown immensely in a short time. A lot of that has to do with his coach (more on this below). Additionally, the Buckeyes still have their All-American back Ezekiel Elliot, who could amass 200 yards in the game, and their spirited leader Evan Spencer, who Urban Meyer touts as their MVP.
Even though Coach Meyer has confidence in Jones play to throw the ball. He also knows that the “X-Factor” could be in the dual threat running game of Ezekiel Elliot and Cardale Jones. Against the Alabama defense, they combined for 273 yards on 37 carries. No doubt about it that Elliot grabbed the yards (230) however it was Jones get that extra yard that deflated the Crimson Tide’s defense. Look for them to pound hard and control the game.
Urban Meyer
Some individuals allude it to the “Urban Way”. As an individual, you may like or dislike him. However, you cannot argue with his success. In case you do not know the numbers; here are his stats:
Bowling Green: 17-6
Utah: 22-2
Florida: 65-15
Ohio State: 37-3
Overall: 141-26
He has propelled the Buckeye program to a new level, and pushes his coaches and players to the next level. Some individuals believe that he may push and control too much, but Meyer can point to his track record of success and keeps on doing what has worked since standing on the Bowling Green sideline in 2001. He is a meticulous planner, and his preparation these last eleven days will be a difference maker.
Joey Bosa
Bosa and the rest of the defensive line for the Buckeyes are going to be the individuals assigned the task of stopping Mariota. With the wide receiver corps down, more emphasis will be placed on the feet of Mariota. Meyer and the Buckeyes will need to have a plan in place to not let the Ducks and Mariota beat them in that manner. Thus, the front four may become more focused than usual.
However, we have to shine light on the Heisman Trophy Champion, who has had a fantastic season and career.
Marcus Mariota
Mariota is a player who in three seasons has thrown for more than 10,000 yards, rushed for more than 2,000 yards, accounted for 129 touchdowns, and been part of 35 victories. Those numbers are astounding and are definitely difficult to pick against.
Mariota has been a champion his whole career and it would be very fitting for him to walk away from the college game and into the NFL game with the Heisman and National Championship trophies in each arm. Over his career, he has accomplished the following:
2012: PAC-12 Freshman of the Year / Fiesta Bowl MVP leading Oregon over #5 Kansas State
2013: Despite injuries, he surpassed 4,000 yards / MVP Alamo Bowl / 11-2 record
2014: 4,121 yards with 40 TDs and only 3 INTs / 13-1 record / MVP of semifinal game in Rose Bowl
Rushing: Mr. Consistent. In his three years, he has totaled: 752, 715, and 731 yards respectively.
He has risen to the challenge and has been a champion in every aspect of the game and life.
Predicting the Champion
In the end, the Ohio State Buckeyes are going to win in an exciting game 38-30 and we will attribute the win to the bend-but-don’t-break defense of the Buckeyes and pull out an easy to overlook fact as the basis: The Oregon Ducks score a TD 70% when in the red zone when playing an unranked opponent but only 63% when playing a ranked opponent. Those percentage points will be the difference. Oregon, early in the game, will be settling for FGs not TDs, and that will be the difference maker.
Now of course, do not be surprised if Oregon wins and it will be because of Mariota.
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