The Certain Uncertainty of NFL Relocation

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Tuesday, January 12th, 2016 ushered in a brand new football team into Los Angeles as NFL owners met in Houston, Texas.

After a tedious day of meeting and negotiations, the St. Louis Rams were allowed to pack up and move to Southern California with a dominant 30-2 vote. But it wasn’t as easy as some expected.

The day started with two propositions: Carson and Inglewood.

The Carson bid was led by Dean Spanos and Mark Davis, the owners of the San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders, respectively. They were assisted by Bob Iger, the CEO of The Walt Disney Company. Iger helped lead a campaign that he would help fund, one that would see two storied division rivals unite under one roof. The Inglewood bid was that of Rams owner Stan Kroenke, who already owns a plot of land in the area.

As the day went on, it became apparent that the vote would come at any time. As many suspected, it did. The vote came after the Los Angeles Committee attempted to push for the Carson site with a 5-1 vote. At this point, many believe that the Carson site had a huge edge.

With much surprise, it was reported that the Inglewood site obtained more votes of approval than that of Carson. Inglewood was able to get a 21-8-3 vote. With three owners abstaining, it was back to the drawing board. The NFL and LA Committee met with each individual team in order to come up with a compromise.

After the negotiations, Davis and the Raiders formally dropped out of the race by pulling their relocation paperwork. This left one option that wasn’t initially on the table, the Chargers and Rams uniting in Inglewood. This plan received an overwhelming 30-2 vote, allowing the Rams to move to Los Angeles immediately.

This is where the fun begins.

Spanos and the Chargers got the green light to move under certain conditions. They must come up with a deal with Kroenke and the Rams before January 16th, 2017. This then means that they also have the opportunity to work out a deal with San Diego. If a deal isn’t struck between San Diego and the Chargers, the Chargers have until 2018 to move to Los Angeles. But, that’s if the Raiders don’t get their first.

If the Chargers miss the January 16th, 2017 deadline, then the Raiders will become the primary option to join the Rams in Inglewood. One must also add that the NFL is willing to give both the Raiders and Chargers $100 million to stay put in their current home markets. This then gives both teams some leverage when going into stadium talks.

What does this mean for the Chargers? They now control their own destiny. They have a lot to gain but quite a bit to lose. With money in hand, the Chargers have another piece that would allow them to build a stadium in San Diego. That’s if they choose to do so. They would still need to get past a vote by the citizens of San Diego, which has been a near impossible task for years. With what happened in Houston on Tuesday, the city of San Diego may gain some inspiration and a fire to do anything to keep the Chargers in the self proclaimed America’s Finest City.

One must also keep in mind that the Spanos family is quite well off. Why should the citizens have to pay for the stadium of a billionaire? One that has threatened to leave and has no plan in sharing the wealth from a stadium that was built with tax payer money. It’s a double edged sword but San Diego will do what it can to keep the team they love.

If the Chargers do stay put, then the Raiders have the opportunity to swoop in. That would mean that the Chargers would now have to compete with two NFL teams that are only 120 miles away. Although something like 25% of the Chargers market comes from the Los Angeles area, that would probably be dissolved with the addition of two NFL teams just two hours north.

This put Spanos and the Chargers in a sticky situation. Now, a move to Los Angeles is not imminent. Spanos would have to take a few things into consideration before joining the Rams. The Chargers would play second fiddle to the Rams. We all know it. Now think about USC and UCLA. Folks from the Los Angeles area will likely be more willing to watch NCAA football than watch the Chargers. That would then leave the Chargers at the very bottom of the Los Angeles food chain.

Then you have to think about sharing a stadium with the Rams. Kroenke owns the land. Do you help build the stadium or will you have to lease? With planning to own the land and the stadium, the Chargers would be in a very unfavorable position if they plan on moving to Inglewood. Then leasing could be an even worse alternative. Is having to rent out the space worth it when trying to capture an almost non-existent fanbase? Not quite. Especially when burning down ties to your former city.

This also puts the Raiders in a very peculiar position. Although the Chargers control the whole situation, Davis can affect how Spanos plays his game. The Raiders, who were also offered the $100 million to stay put, will now have to enter some negotiations with the city of Oakland. Doing so could give the Chargers some comfort but what if talks dissolve? This puts Spanos in a very awkward situation. The Raiders have an opportunity to move to Los Angeles if the Chargers don’t capitalize within the next year. They will then get the market the Chargers failed to capitalize on.

Knowing this, the Chargers will need to think quickly and clearly, as they have to give the city of San Diego notice of whether they will be staying put or not by February of this year.

Now, what if the Raiders do find a solution in Oakland and make an agreement with the city? Simple. The Chargers could remain in San Diego with no worries of losing a portion of the market. The Rams would stay solo and everyone will likely be at peace.

Within the next month, everything may end up being much clearer. As of right now, it’s just a game of chess. Spanos and Davis are playing a strategical game that will not be clear until at least one of them makes a move.

What we do know is that Spanos and Kroenke will be meeting for the duration of their stay in Houston. We may get a decision soon but nothing is certain.

For now, let’s just welcome the Rams back to the City of Angels and wait for everything to play out.

 

You may also listen to what I had to say about the relocation in our The AOSN Rundown Special.

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Dean SpanosMark DavisNFL RelocationOakland RaidersSan Diego ChargersSt. Louis RamsStan Kroenke
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